Dean McHugh
Blackjack ranks among the top casino games at online and physical casinos. It draws its popularity from its seemingly simple game mechanics. Starting from two cards, a player has to create a hand with a value higher than that of the dealer without going bust or exceeding a hand value of 21.
A player total of 21 is called “blackjack” or a “natural.” Likewise, players may stand on the first two cards they were initially dealt or ask the dealer for more cards (called a “hit”) to add to their total until they choose to “stand” on the total hand value or go bust.
However, blackjack’s simplicity can be misleading—delving underneath the surface of blackjack odds and probabilities can reveal how maddeningly complicated the game can be.
Therefore, each player must understand the inner workings of blackjack odds and how to leverage them to their advantage. Sharpening your blackjack skill makes the game even more thrilling and potentially lucrative. This guide will give you the full scoop on blackjack odds and probabilities, teach you concepts such as the house edge and return to player (RTP), and, finally, teach you how to extract the most value out of your bets. Ready? Let’s begin.
Blackjack Odds: How Likely Can a Player Bust Out?
Players can use various blackjack strategies to increase their probability of winning, gain more advantageous blackjack odds, and reduce the house edge.
At the same time, casinos have plenty of tools at their disposal to reduce players’ odds of winning. This includes adding gameplay restrictions (e.g., no doubling after a split), reducing blackjack payouts, or adding an extra deck or two in the shoe.
For this reason, players need to gain a thorough understanding of blackjack probabilities to recognise the edge they might have against the house.
The following blackjack odds table demonstrates your probability of busting out on a hit after the dealer has dealt your first two cards.
Blackjack Odds: How Likely Can the Dealer Bust Out?
Every casino gives itself a house edge. That means the odds are tilted against you, and the dealer holds a clear-cut advantage and better blackjack odds than you. This is compounded by the fact that the dealer always acts after the player, with the benefit of deciding based on your results as an added bonus.
However, house rules for blackjack will vary depending on the casino you choose to play, which may further tilt the odds in the house’s favour. For example, a dealer required by house rules to hit on a “soft” 17 (a hand containing an ace that can be counted either as 1 or 11 without the hand exceeding 21) has a better probability of winning than a dealer required to stand on a soft 17.
The following table will demonstrate the probability of a dealer busting out and how house rules can play a factor in the latter.
The Lowdown on House Edge: Explained
The “house edge” refers to the mathematical advantage the casino holds over the players. This shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone playing casino games—it is, after all, the reason why casinos operate. The built-in mathematical advantage applies to all casino games, meaning the odds of the house winning money over the long run are significantly higher than the players’ odds of making a profit. Therefore, the lower the house edge, the better it is for the player.
The mere fact that the dealer acts after a player and bases their decisions on how the player acts is a significant house edge. If a player busts out, the dealer wins without having to act any further. Besides house rules, different blackjack variants may lead to a higher or lower house advantage when compared to traditional blackjack.
It’s key to understand blackjack odds and probability and how they are affected based on the blackjack variant you wish to play. The following table lists the most common blackjack variants and how they affect the house edge.
House Edge in Popular Blackjack Variants
Ultimately, a player's house edge is determined by the blackjack variant they choose to play. Every blackjack game has its own subtle variation that may increase or decrease house edge based on house rules and the number of decks the variant uses. These factors may favour either player or dealer, therefore changing the house advantage, blackjack odds, probabilities, and rewards. Before playing a blackjack game, you should be familiar with the rules and house edge—and the actions that may increase or reduce it—because they might mean the difference between turning a profit or losing.
What is Return to Player (RTP)?
The return to player (RTP) metric can be seen as the opposite of the casino’s house edge. In essence, RTP is the percentage of a payout that a game “returns” or pays back to the player over a set number of bets. From another perspective, RTP can be seen as the ratio of winning bets over the total number of bets a player makes.
As discussed earlier, the inherent statistical advantage in blackjack odds is called the house edge. The house edge indicates the casino’s profit margin on a particular game over the long term. House edge is calculated by subtracting the RTP value from the total turnover. For instance, a blackjack game showing an RTP of 99% would have a house edge of 1%, as demonstrated by the equation: 100%-99%. The higher the house edge, the less favourable it is for players to turn in a consistent profit over a sustained betting period.
The effects of RTP in the game of blackjack resonate across all aspects of the game. Online and land-based casinos offer many blackjack variants, each with its own set of rules, house edge, and number of decks used. Casino game developers painstakingly implement these options when they create games. Therefore, players ought to familiarise themselves with the rules, RTP, and information about the blackjack games they wish to play. While RTP isn’t a perfect metric by any means, it can be a vital tool to improve your chances of winning at blackjack (or any casino game, for that matter).
Card counting: How can it affect a player’s odds of winning?
Card counting is a hot topic in the world of online betting—especially when it comes to blackjack. In essence, card counting involves a player using a system to monitor the ratio of low cards vis-a-vis high cards by keeping track of the cards that have been dealt over a game of blackjack or other table games to gain an edge over the house. The basic underlying premise of card counting is that a shoe or a deck rich with 10 value cards, such as 10s, Kings, Queens, and Jacks, is favourable to the player, while one with low-value cards (such as 2s, 3s, or 4s) is more favourable to the dealer.
For instance, when a shoe has a higher concentration of 10 value cards and aces, there will be a higher statistical probability of natural blackjacks being dealt. Natural blackjacks pay at a 3:2 clip or 150% of your bet size, and the dealer will more likely bust out more often. On the other hand, when a higher concentration of low-value cards remains, fewer blackjacks will be dealt, and the dealer is less likely to bust out. Players, therefore, can harness the dark arts of card counting to monitor the card concentration in each shoe and make bigger bets when more higher cards remain and smaller bets when more lower cards are left. The concept is simple, but executing the strategy consistently to make profits is more complicated—if not made impossible by some casinos.
One school of thought views card counting as a legitimate strategy for highly skilled players to increase their chances of beating the house. However, most casinos view it as an unfair advantage or downright cheating. Therefore, many casinos have implemented measures to discourage or prevent card counting.
Basic blackjack strategy: How to improve your odds of winning
Blackjack strategy can be boiled down to a strictly better, mathematically-proven way that reduces the house edge to 0.50%. Most new blackjack players learn to play the game by following the Basic Strategy chart. This guide shows the superior way to play your first two cards based on the dealer’s face-up card. As discussed earlier, the casino gains the house edge by virtue of the fact that the player must act first. Therefore, since basic strategy only applies to the first two cards dealt, players need to gain a better understanding of the best actions to take after taking a hit.
Here’s a quick rundown on basic blackjack strategy.
How to Play “Hard” Blackjack Hands
“Hard” hands refer to a starting blackjack hand of two cards that lack an Ace.
- If your hand value is 8 or less, always take a hit.
- If your hand value is 9, double down if the dealer’s face-up card is 3 to 6. Otherwise, take a hit.
- If your hand value is 10, double down if the dealer’s face-up card is 2 to 9. Otherwise, take a hit.
- If your hand value is 11, double down if the dealer’s face-up card is 2 to 10. If the dealer is holding an Ace, take a hit.
- If your hand value is 12, take a hit if the dealer’s face-up card is 2 or 3. If the dealer’s hand value is 4 to 6, stand. Otherwise, take a hit.
- If your hand value is 13 to 16, stand if the dealer’s face-up card is 2 to 6. Otherwise, take a hit.
- If your hand value is 17 to 21, always stand.
How to Play “Soft” Blackjack Hands
“Soft” hands refer to a starting blackjack hand of two cards containing an Ace.
- If your hand contains an Ace and 2 or Ace and 3, double down if the dealer’s face-up card is 5 or 6. Otherwise, take a hit.
- If your hand contains an Ace and 4 or Ace and 5, double down if the dealer’s face-up card is 4 to 6. Otherwise, take a hit.
- If your hand contains an Ace and 6, double down if the dealer’s face-up card is 3 to 6. Otherwise, take a hit.
- If you have an Ace and 7, stand if the dealer has 2, 7, or 8. Double down if the dealer has 3 to 6. Otherwise, take a hit.
- Always stand if your hand contains an Ace and 8 or Ace and 9.
How to Play Blackjack Pairs
- Always split if your starting hand has a pair of Aces or Eights.
- If your starting hand has a pair of twos or threes, split if the dealer’s face-up card is 2-7. Otherwise, take a hit.
- If your starting hand has a pair of fours, split if the dealer’s face-up card is 5 or 6. Otherwise, take a hit.
- If your starting hand has a pair of fives, double down if the dealer’s face-up card is 2 to 9. Otherwise, take a hit.
- If your starting hand has a pair of sixes, split if the dealer’s face-up card is 2 to 6. Otherwise, take a hit.
- If your starting hand has a pair of sevens, split if the dealer’s face-up card is 2 to 7. Otherwise, take a hit.
- If your starting hand has a pair of nines, split if the dealer’s face-up card is 2 to 6, and 8 or 9. Stand if the dealer is showing a 7, 10, or Ace.
- If you have a pair of tens, always stand.
Blackjack odds and probability of side bets explained
One of blackjack’s main draws is its relatively lower house edge compared to other table games like baccarat. Skilled blackjack players will typically face a house edge of 0.50%. Even when accounting for a bad run of play, the blackjack house edge only rises to 2%. That’s a remarkably high RTP rate compared to other popular table or casino games.
Blackjack is essentially an even-money game, which can rise to 2:1 odds if you are dealt a natural blackjack. That’s where side bets come in. Blackjack side bets offer players to play longer odds and win big on blackjack. One caveat: the house edge skyrockets when playing blackjack side bets—with some bets raising the house edge from 0.50% to 10%. Side bets add the thrill of winning big, but you can also lose more money by overdoing it. Let’s look at some of the most common blackjack side bets.
Common blackjack side bets
Whether you're playing at an online or physical casino, blackjack side bets are often shown on the felt or a menu. Here, you will see the side bets with their odds, payouts, and terms since they can vary depending on the site or casino you’re playing at.
The primary blackjack side bets are:
- Insurance
- Perfect Pairs
- 21+3
Let’s look at each common blackjack side bet in more detail.
Insurance
Insurance is the most common blackjack side bet, allowing you to protect yourself against the dealer hitting a natural blackjack if he has an ace facing up. The insurance side bet involves half of your original bet, which will pay out at 2:1 odds if the dealer has a natural blackjack. Insurance, in essence, helps diminish the house edge in an unfavourable situation for the player.
Perfect Pairs
Perfect pair side bets are paid out only when you’re dealt two of a kind under the following circumstances:
- Mixed pair side bet. A pair of the same value but different colours and suits will pay 5:1.
- Coloured pair side bet. A pair of the same value and the same colour will pay 12:1.
- Perfect pair side bet. A perfect pair—or pair of the same card will pay 25:1.
Returns may vary depending on the casino you choose to play in, and the house edge will vary depending on the payout, house rules, and/or number of decks used. This can range from 2% to over 10% or higher.
21+3
21+3 refers to a side bet involving the player’s first two cards and the dealer’s face-up card. This side bet pays out depending on the following combinations:
- Flush. This side bet is paid at 5:1 when all three cards are suited.
- Straight. This side bet pays 10:1 when all three cards are consecutive.
- Three of a kind. This side bet pays 30:1 when all three cards are of the same kind (not the same suit).
- Straight flush. This side bet pays 40:1 when all three consecutive cards share the same suit.
- Suited triple. This side bet pays 100:1 when all three cards are the same card.
It must be noted that these three side bets represent the most common ones played across all casinos. However, new side bets are being invented all the time, depending on the casino or provider, in an attempt to draw new audiences and retain existing players. More complex, higher-paying side bets can be found as niche bets in selected casinos, with some offering up to 5000:1 payouts—but the chances of winning such side bets are much smaller.
Blackjack side bets ultimately require no skill and rely on pure luck. Thus, side bets are best used sparingly and only to add an additional element of thrill from time to time—if at all—to enhance your blackjack gaming experience. You should never make them the main focus of your blackjack strategy.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Does blackjack have the best winning odds?
Blackjack’s low house edge of up to 0.50% distinguishes it among the table games with the best winning odds, putting the dealer on the same footing as the player as far as luck and skill are concerned.
Is blackjack a skill-based game or a luck-based game?
Blackjack focuses on skill because winning relies on having a good understanding of hand values, strategies, and quick thinking against the dealer. While there is always an element of luck in all table games, blackjack gives the player agency to turn it into a game of skill.
What are the odds of a player winning at blackjack?
The odds of a player winning a blackjack hand sits at 42.22%, while the chances of a dealer winning are 49.1%. The remaining 8.48% represents the odds for a tie.
Are 21 and blackjack the same game?
Yes, 21 and blackjack refer to the same game. 21 is the maximum winning hand value in blackjack, and a hand value of 21 is called “blackjack.”
Is blackjack a 50/50 game of chance?
No. When playing a game of blackjack, there are three outcomes to consider: a player win, a dealer win, or a tie/push. Therefore, it’s not a 50/50 game of chance.